Nader's reasoning for abandoning the 'least worst' mentality has never made more sense. This time, however, the balance sheet is decidedly in progressives' favor.xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

It's been a constant refrain each and every time progressives are forced to choose between a corporate Democrat and a corporate Republican in the general election: 'you have to choose the lesser of two evils'. It emanates from even the pinnacles of progressive thought (i.e., Chomsky) all the way on down into the streets as people 'hold their noses' and cast their ballots. And it's being deployed right now, as progressives who supported Bernie Sanders in the primary are being, not asked, but harassed/cajoled/shamed/sneered-at/slandered/smeared to just get behind Joe, the stakes of another 4 of Trump are: Just. Too. High.

Unfortunately, however, for liberal centrists, the calculus facing progressives in 2020 is a bit different. In previous years, progressives were a marginal, fringe, politically fragmented non-entity and the argument that 'it just takes a few minutes or more to cast a ballot, so just cast it and continue on with the struggle' made sense. It was a realistic, sober appraisal of progressives' electoral influence melded with the idea that its better as a progressive to minimize harm while at the same time maintaining the most favorable political environment within which to advance their projects. Fair enough, and most progressives did their duty and voted 'D'. For Gore. For Kerry. And for Hillary Clinton.

And, while it's been tough, what's been tougher, has been the complete dereliction of duty on the part of the Democratic party. Russiagating for 3+years, an impeachment, bot-farms, pee-tapes, Mueller report and on and on. The #Resistance mounted by the ostensible opposition party has been a joke whose cynical purpose has been clear: to short-circuit the conversation the Bernie began in 2015 with his run and preserve the status quo until 2020 when they could force another corporate Democrat down progressives' throats. And force they did.

So, while it would be incredibly interesting to recap the 'forcing' in this primary (the ridiculous proliferation of shell-candidates, laughably tilted 'debates', rigged vote counting, orchestrated consolidation behind a clearly demented Nice Guy by the formerly beloved, Obama), its not bitterness and resentment that can motivate progressives who wish to abandon the two-party system now and 'burn the whole thing down'. Rather, progressives can look at the current situation in the same politically calculating way that establishment Democrats have done and see within it the seeds of their success.

The movement Bernie catalyzed in 2015 has taken progressives from the fringe to the mainstream. They would be in power if not for the party machinations that have now deprived them of their rightfully earned mandate to lead the country, twice. Progressives need to be sober about what voting for Biden means in 2020, because it's not 2000 or 2004. Voting Biden now means at least 4-more years of Biden. Then, as he is certain to be incapable of serving perhaps even his first term, leadership will default to his VP pick, which is right now being carefully calculated for precisely this reason. This means there is unlikely to be a real primary on the Democratic side in 2024. Regardless of how good the progressive challenger might be at that time, the country is programmed, and the party itself is designed, to facilitate that transfer. This will mean that a vote for Biden today will lead to 12 or more years of neoliberal rule over the country, and all the economic despair, cronyism, corrupting and dysfunction that entails.

So, the question progressives need to ask themselves today is: are 4-more years of Trump and whatever risks that poses worth the certainty of another chance to run a viable progressive candidate in just 4-more years? Are we really certain that Trump will dismantle our democracy? Isn't our democracy practically already dismantled? And what are Democrats going to do to rebuild it. After enduring their slander, smear, cynicism and all the dishonest, disingenuous rest throughout this primary, who is ready to put their full faith and trust in them now?

Furthermore, it is time for progressives to grow a backbone. We need to show some mettle. If Biden is elected, will progressives have the same fire to organize that they would under a Donald Trump, or would they 'go to sleep' like they did under Obama? With Trump unable to realistically (unless you believe he will install himself as a dictator) run again, and the prospect of Pence or some other ridiculous Republican to run against at that point, despite the moral anguish progressives might feel in making this decision, it seems the most politically expedient strategy they can take right now is to not vote Biden. No one needs to vote for Trump and taint themselves with that: Biden may be able to win on his own: maybe those around him will start arguing actual policies, maybe he'll make concessions to win-over progressives. But regardless of what those concessions are, they need to be weighed clearly: 12-16-more years of neoliberal rule vs a certain opportunity to re-litigate the progressive agenda in 2024.

The choice seems clear: abstain in 2020, continue to organize and colonize the Democratic party and hope for the best but prepare for the worst. And that is 'colonize the democratic party' because progressives also need to be realistic in their appraisal of the viability of a Third Party. Yes, it would probably get more than 5%, get federal matching funds and be taken somewhat more seriously. However, whereas progressives only need 50.1% votes in the Democratic primary to take-control of it's levers of power, running as a Third Party will require entirely supplanting both of the parties with 50+% in a general election. If anyone seriously thinks that's on the horizon of possibility today, they are deluding themselves and also discounting the potential for progressive momentum to be shunted, stunted, or otherwise diminished because they channeled all their organizing behind Howie Hawkins (and no offense to him, but it seems pretty far-fetched to believe he'll get it done).

Progressives can stick to finishing the work that Bernie Sanders started, remain faithful to him, his work and the moment we all experienced together from 2015-2020 without getting lost in pointless critiques that undermine the good faith and solidarity he has catalyzed in the country. And, if it becomes necessary and momentum build substantially, one can consider a Third Party as a short-term tool or institutional place-holder to facilitate organizing Democratic primary challengers or coordinating with already-existing progressive groups like Our Revolution, the Sunrise Movement, Justice Democrats, the DSA and others. But that is an argument for another day..

In summary: Nader was always right about the reasons to abandon the 'lesser of two evils' vote. But his timing was wrong, the calculus didn't compute, and his strategy to channel progressive energy into a fringe Third Party was misguided, as Bernie has proven.

Better days are ahead and we need to be sober about them in a way that we have never had to be before.